As governments around the world start to loosen their restrictions and attempt to restart their economies, they are drawing a “road map” to re-open businesses and schools that were closed during the last few weeks of the COVID–19 pandemic.
These “road maps” include three key phases. The first phase involved the shutdown of schools and most businesses that were declared non-essential, along with enforcing rigid restrictions on travel.
The second phase was an easing of some restrictions, allowing people to visit parks, travel, and engage in business activities like construction and other semi-essential activities. The general theme was work from home and go to work if you must, but avoid public transit, and follow health and safety guidelines.
The third phase will involve governments monitoring COVID-9 numbers in terms of transmissions, recovery and deaths, and then removing more restrictions -- opening schools, businesses, restaurants, and public events with restrictions on the number of people.
Most published research says social distancing will be with us for the long term and is the new norm. I disagree. I believe social distancing was a necessary and important tool to contain and limit transmission of the coronavirus but will be transitionary for the medium term until a new drug treatment and vaccine are discovered. Finding a remedy and not just a treatment of the symptoms and building natural immunity are the fundamental answer for COVID–19.
Social distancing cannot be enforced for the long term by its own nature. How do you enforce social distancing in elevators or in public transportation? A bus that can carry 80 people will now only have 20 or 25? An elevator that can take 20 people will now be limited to 4? These are two examples of common places where social distancing cannot be realistically applied. Consider that a lineup of 500 people, each two metres apart, would be a kilometre long!
Then there are places where social distancing can be applied but is not practical. A sports event that expects 40,000 visitors cannot operate with 10,000 and be profitable. A restaurant that serves 100 diners per night cannot survive on 30 diners. AIRBUS A 380 can carry over 500 passengers and BOEING 777 can carry 390 Passengers. These planes cannot be profitable with only few passengers or the price of air travel would have to increase significantly.
Would the new norm include more people working from home? Yes. Would it include improved safety and health measures? Yes. But not social distancing forever!
Another prediction by experts is that government intervention in the economy will increase. This is, indeed, a valid expectation. But the real key is not the ‘what’ but the ‘how to’ of such a prognostication. COVID–19 has clearly demonstrated that most governments worldwide were taken by surprise and caught unprepared.
Most governments relied on the WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION (WHO) to provide an early-warning system which proved to be ineffective. And many countries were not ready for a pandemic. They were caught by surprise and were lacking in preparedness and capacity.
Going forward, two priorities emerge. First, the need to establish an early-warning system that works better than world-funded organizations that are politically manipulated and/or managed by incompetent people who were selected through a democratic vote rather than by proficiency and experience. Second, have an improved planning process for public health systems. Armies constantly test their preparedness through frequent maneuvers and military exercises. Why not have similar drills for health systems? After all, ventilators, masks, gloves, disinfectants, and protective gowns are not rocket-science equipment or supplies!
Going forward, we need governments headed by effective leaders with a heart for public service. That means genuine public servants -- not politicians who look good on the surface but offer little beyond oratory skills.
According to Peter Drucker, who is perhaps the most influential thinker on management, effective leadership is not about making speeches or being liked; it is defined by results, not attributes. I would add that effective leadership should always be prepared. Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm, but what is the plan when you go through a storm? Storms are part of life. They should not be a surprise.
We need powerful government that runs the country not by doing directly but by encouraging and inspiring people to do what is required. Governments, in my humble opinion, should not create jobs or run the economy. They should create the conditions for people to work, strive, build, learn, invent, hire, and grow.
Market forces have consistently proven that they are better creators of wealth, health, and prosperity than government. While they need guidelines and laws, they remain the most effective means of growing the economy. Any doubters should compare North Korea to South Korea, or before the fall of the Berlin wall, East Germany to West Germany. In both cases we had the same people separated by different governments and different ideologies. History has demonstrated that you cannot make poor people rich by making rich people poor.