Following up on my last blog “Pruning season for Canada,” I ask today, is it good advice to “ treat others the way we’d like to be treated? Easy to respond yes in general, but difficult when being under attack and indeed, today, Canada is under attack. Let me start by saying that I am not the kind to roll over when attacked. Defending is not a choice; it is vital. Survival is not optional. What is optional is how to respond and counter attack. My experience tells me that knowing more about my attacker’s reasons, behavior, objectives and demands should help me better prepare my response for win-win negotiations.
Canada is under attack not only economically but our sovereignty is threatened by a neighbour that is twelve times bigger and unfortunately has become unpredictable. The timing of the attack is also delicate as Canada is undergoing a critical change of leadership. The change is long overdue and needed, but never the less dangerous as changing horse in the midst of a battle requires wise planning and smart execution.
Here is a short list of what I believe are four serious US challenges. Understanding the US key priorities gives us an opportunity to help them and indirectly help ourselves for a win-win outcome.
1. The Economy:
The cumulative US budget deficit is $2 Trillion or 7% of GDP. To cut taxes as Mr. Trump has promised his constituents, the US must grow its revenues (Tariffs Initiative) and cut expenditures (DOGE Initiative). Canada needs to demonstrate that we can help but only if we work together. My example is simple: you can loose weight overnight by cutting off your legs, but it is much better to loose weight by getting serious with exercising and starting a healthy diet.
The US Trade Deficit of $100B is made up with China 30%, Europe 25% and Mexico 20%. Canada is the last of the top ten countries with less than 5% so the clear priority is not Canada. Furthermore, the numbers reveal that without the energy component, the US-Canada trade deficit is actually a US surplus so where is the problem? In less than 2 years, Canada can build infrastructure on the East and West coasts allowing us to diversify our energy export and at a higher price too. We can simultaneously help the US by balancing our energy trade with them and keeping our “allies” in Europe warm in winter and cool in summer. As an added bonus, more Canadians are put to work, GDP gets a boost and we save money and help environmentally by avoiding importing oil from the Middle East which is transported on rusty oil tanks. A quadruple win for all parties without tariffs between US and Canada and – I may add - within our own provinces.
2. International:
The US and the USSR shared world leadership after WWII until December 1991 when the USSR collapsed and was replaced by Russia. The US became the undisputed Global Leader or world “Policeman“. Today, the US with over 700 military bases in 80 countries and 165’000 troops overseas, spends a gigantic $1 Trillion on its military. The US can neither sustain this level of spending, nor retract from its world leadership role, hence their consistent demand for NATO countries to up their defense investment. We are part of NATO but our role is minor. We have slipped dangerously to 1.4% military expenses to GDP. We are last of the G7. Bad decision, because military investment contribute to peace by deterring potential aggressors in addition to allowing us to participate in peacekeeping missions fostering international alliances and cooperation. “Prevention is better than cure and cheaper.” Working together with the US and bringing the Europeans along is crucial for the free world. Not only the US needs us, but we do not need a big daddy to protect us. We should welcome team work and reject dependency on anyone.
Let’s not forget too that 110’000 Canadian military are buried in cemeteries across Europe. Our children and grandchildren say, “No repeat please”. The US may not have been the best Policeman but that is more reason to help them. Just imagine a police force made up of China, Russia and Iran. Time to stop talking and do the right thing by re-building our military.
3. Border security, immigration, and drugs:
Reliable estimates suggest that a shocking 300,000 to 600,000 people live in Canada without valid documents and more than 50,000 Canadians died with opioid-related deaths. Do we need our neighbour to threaten us to fix that? Are these number not enough to convince us to take decisive actions. Both, Canadian and Americans have a responsibility to protect our youth. Let’s get the job done together by securing our common borders and stopping drug trafficking.
4. Resources: A US challenge ... an opportunity for Canada:
Canada has many natural resources that the US needs. We are the world leader in potash production, the largest fertilizer producer (crucial for US farmers), a leading global producer of diamonds, uranium, zinc, nickel, asbestos, sulfur, and titanium, in addition to of course energy (oil, natural gas and hydropower) and owning the 3rd largest proven oil reserves in the world. Best of all, Canada is the world’s largest renewable fresh water supply only behind Brazil and Russia. These resources are needed by our neighbour for running a strong economy. Water availability = manufacturing availability = job availability. This is not rocket science!
4 good reasons why US strategy has to include cooperation from Canada. While we cannot solve all of our neighbour challenges, we can help with many. The US would be better off with Canada as a reliable partner and a trusted friend and yes, I say it is wise advice to “ treat others the way we’d like to be treated “. (+)
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